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In the forex market, currency trading is always done in currency pairs, such
as EUR/USD or USD/JPY. Accordingly, all trades result in the simultaneous
buying of one currency and the selling of another. The base currency is the
鈥渂asis鈥 for the buy or the sell. It is useful to consider the currency pair
as an instrument which can be bought or sold. The following are examples
of situations that might lead you to choose a particular currency pair to
trade:
EUR/USD
If, for example, you think the U.S. economy will continue to fall and that will hurt the USD, you click on BUY, you are buying euros expecting them to go up against the USD. If you click on SELL, you buy U.S. dollars, expecting them to climb against the euro.
USD/JPY
If, for example, you think that the Japanese government is going to weaken the yen in order to help its export industry, you would click on BUY, expecting the U.S. dollar to increase in value against the yen. If you think that Japanese investors are pulling money out of U.S. financial markets and repatriating funds back to Japan, you would click on SELL, expecting the yen to strengthen against the U.S. dollar as Japanese investors sell their assets and convert their dollars to yen.
GBP/USD
If, for example, you think the British economy
will continue to be the leading economy among the G7 nations
in terms of growth, thus buoying the pound, you would click
BUY, expecting the British pound to strengthen against the
U.S. dollar. If you believe the British are about to commit
themselves to adopting the euro, you would click SELL, expecting
the pound to weaken against the dollar as the British devalue
their currency in anticipation of merging with the euro.
USD/CHF
If, for example, you think the Swiss franc is overvalued, you
would click BUY, expecting the U.S. dollar to strengthen against
the Swiss franc. If you believe that due to instability in
the Middle East and in U.S. financial markets the dollar will
continue to weaken, you would click SELL, expecting the Swiss
franc to strengthen against the dollar.
EUR/CHF
If, for example, you think the Swiss government wishes to devalue
the currency to help exports in Europe, you would click BUY,
expecting the euro to increase in value against the Swiss franc.
If inflation started taking off in Germany and France, you
would click SELL expecting the Swiss franc to increase in value
against a devalued euro.
AUD/USD
If, for example, you think that commodity prices are going
to rise dramatically, thus benefiting the AUD, you would click
BUY, expecting the aussie to strengthen against the U.S. dollar
due to Australia being a leading exporter of many commodities.
If you believe that Australia is heading into recession, you
would click SELL, expecting the U.S. dollar to strengthen against
the AUD.
USD/CAD
If, for example, you think that the U.S. economy is going to
rebound while the Canadian economy goes into recession, you
would click BUY, expecting the U.S. dollar to strengthen against
the Canadian dollar. If you believe the Canadian dollar is
fundamentally undervalued and will strengthen against the U.S.
dollar, you would click SELL, expecting the CAD to rise against
the U.S. dollar.
EUR/GBP
If, for example, you believe the British are about to commit
themselves to adopting the euro, you would click BUY, expecting
the pound to weaken against the euro as the British devalue
their currency in anticipation of the merger. If you believe
that Great Britain's economy will grow at a faster rate than
Europe's, you would click SELL, expecting the British pound
to rise in value against the euro.
EUR/JPY
If, for example, you believe that the Japanese banking crisis
will continue to get worse, you would click BUY expecting the
euro to rise against the yen. If for example you believe that
Europe is going into recession, thus weakening the euro, you
would click SELL, expecting the euro to drop in value against
the yen.
GBP/JPY
If, for example, you believe that the BOE is going to raise
interest rates, you would click BUY, expecting the British
pound to increase against the yen due to interest rate arbitrage.
If you think the Nikkei index will rise at a higher rate than
the FTSE, thus buoying the yen, you would click on SELL, expecting
the yen to increase against the British pound.
CHF/JPY
If, for example, you believe conflict in the Middle East may
cause a spike in oil prices, you would click BUY, expecting
the CHF to increase against the yen due to Japan's reliance
on imported oil and the CHF's safe-haven status. If you believe
there will be more stability in the region, you would click
SELL, expecting the yen to rise against the CHF.
GBP/CHF
If, for example, you believe that the BOE is going to raise
interest rates, you would click BUY, expecting the British
pound to increase against the CHF due to interest rate arbitrage.
If you believe the British are about to commit themselves to
adopting the euro, you would click SELL, expecting the pound
to weaken against the CHF as the British devalue their currency
in anticipation of merging with the euro.
EUR/AUD
If, for example, you believe that Australia is heading into
recession, you would click BUY, expecting the euro to strengthen
against the AUD. If you think that commodity prices are going
to rise dramatically, you would click SELL, expecting the aussie
to strengthen against the euro due to Australia being a leading
exporter of many commodities.
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